"Modelling trait evolution in plankton communities; challenges and opportunities"Flynn, Kevin JEvolution in individual organisms is a cornerstone process underpinning ecology. Often linked in models to concepts of trait trade-offs, classic examples include evolution of resources expenditure on growth vs defence, or hiding vs hunting. This presentation will explore challenges and opportunities of modelling evolution using plankton as exemplar organisms, and the Universal Trait-Trade-Off (UTTO – Flynn & Skibiniski 2020, JPlankt.Res. https://doi.org/10.1093/plankt/fbaa038) of the maximum growth rate as the evolution target. More generally, challenges include: identifying the trait to evolve (noting that traits are invariably controlled by many genes, and most modelled traits will biologically comprise metatraits), identifying the trade-offs driving the direction of trait evolution, the costs of adding additional state variables for each trait being evolved, handling unintended consequences of evolving parameters, ramifications of evolution extending throughout the modelled trophic web, and handling stochasticity in evolution. Obtaining data to support such model development is also extremely problematic; most plankton experiments designed to force evolution are simple autecology systems. In contrast, in the real world, evolution for any one organism occurs simultaneously with the evolution of other competing and consuming organisms, and against the backdrop of stochastic environmental factors. Great care is thus required at all levels of exploring evolution, else the inevitably interesting consequences of the modelling studies may have little if any value in the context of real world applications. |
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